Crypto Duel: Breaking Down Bitcoin | Erik Crown & Mati Greenspan


What’s up, everyone? We’ve got something special
for you today. Both Mati Greenspan and Eric
Crown will be joining me to discuss the current
state of the market. Long term predictions
and much more. My name is Jackson and welcome
to this week’s market predictions. So let’s
tackle the big kahuna first – bitcoin. In
Monday’s crypto markets, Mati talked about
how the 200 day moving average is nearing
an intersection with Bitcoin’s actual price.
Will that intersection take place.
Go ahead, Eric. That’s all you, man. OK.
So I’m not I’m not necessarily clear on the
situation. You’re talking about the actual
price crossing the 200, the 200 day moving
average. It’s nowhere near a price action
right now, as far as I can see. It’s literally
below nine thousand bucks.
Right. Right. So, yeah, that’s exactly what
I’ve got here. The 200 day moving average
is just above eight thousand and it’s rising
fast.
So the case here is that many people have
called this whole area descending triangle.
So if we do get a break below, let’s say,
9000 ish, then we could see the moving average
coming into act as support. That’s case A,
case B would be, let’s say if prices continue
sideways, eventually the moving average itself
will come up to provide this support.
I see what you’re saying there. Yeah. So here’s
the thing is that if Bitcoin does break below
this current structure, like let’s call it
ninety five hundred, I’ll put on my my drawing
tools right here. Yeah. The 200 simple is
going to be a target. It’s obviously gonna
be coming into that eighty five hundred level.
You know, kind of that current trajectory
which would kind of line up with that same
gap that we saw in price action from CMEs
and like what was it middle of July. Sorry.
Middle of June perhaps. But actually I don’t
believe if we were to actually break down,
which I’m not saying that we are, but if we
were to break down, I would actually be looking
at this to go a little bit lower than that,
actually significantly lower than that. All
the way down into the upper six thousand is
technically where this measure move would
suggest. You know, I do agree with you that
the that the longer that bitcoin goes sideways
here, the more that these moving averages
have to catch up. But that’s not always a
good thing. You know, we’re looking at everything
kind of condense on each other right now,
which tells us that we’re still consolidating,
but we’re not really giving a direction based
off that until we break one of the major levels
to me. If we were to break below this ninety
four ninety five hundred ish level right here,
also the 3-8-2 Fibonacci retracement on this
formation, we’re not just going to be breaking
down to go down to the 200 simple or 200 exponential
we’re we’re gonna be going down much, much
further. This is a complete change in behavior
as far as I’m concerned, at the higher time
frames indicating a complete, you know, new
phase going on.
I mean, this has been so far a relatively
constructive consolidation within this region,
which would, you know, give the give the odds
a little bit more in the favor of the bulls
right now. Well, the second that we break
formation is the second that I turn into an
actual bear and this starts to look like a
bull trap. And that’s going to set us up.
I mean, yes. For a move down here, most likely.
And then I would genuinely think actually
probably lower after that as well. But I would
want to take a once at a time. Again, this
is with the assumption that we actually do
break down below that region. Myself, I think
that this I just have a feeling it does pull
through, even though that’s not necessarily
too much based on what you know, you know,
based on much. But at the end of the day man
I need to see these levels broken and it’s
not even this upper level right here that
really does it for me, for the bulls at eleven-four
even though it is kind of lined up with this
sub resistance trend line and also the nought
point five fib, we need to get a higher high
over this twelve thousand dollar tick right
here before anything actually changes for
me. Other than that, I kind of just look at
it as a sloppy but somewhat healthy crypto
consolidation in the way that these cryptos
like to play them out. And until we get resolution
on this and I think that we get resolution
on this next week or two, you know, trading
in the middle range is just just very, very
difficult. You know, there’s very little opportunity
in this range right here.
What do you think about that, Mati? Do you
agree with him?
Yeah, I mean, it sounds quite complicated,
but I think the end result here is that we
both agree that Bitcoin is in a healthy consolidation
also.
So you would be so you would be bullish on
this formation right here, Mati?
Well, at the moment, I’ve reduced most of
the cryptos from my portfolio overall.
I got a little bit bullish on the alt coins
this morning because of that recent alt window,
as they’ve been calling it. But other than
that, I want to see movement before I go in
heavy.
Yeah. One hundred percent. I’ve actually done
the exact same thing this past week, reduced
most my positions. Small. Very, very, very,
very, very small. Long exposure right now.
But size right now is the time to be waiting,
in my opinion. I do think that we see a big
move like an actual massive move in the next
week. We may. Maybe we can have some like
that. Things are shaping up right now.
But why? I mean, what. Based on what do you
say that we have to get? Because, look, in
my experience, I mean, look, it could break
down. It could break up. It could go sideways
for another year. Why would you say that within
the next week there would be a massive movement?
Okay. So there’s a few reasons right here.
First and foremost, the easiest one is just
that this information right here does have
an apex coming in. You know what, like early
October and typically those things like to
break when they’re about 60. You know, you
know, 70 to 75 percent full right? So that’d
put it somewhere right around this region
right here, which is actually end of this
week. Not only that, but looking at volumes,
the nature of this formation, we are rapidly
declining. We’ve been declining for the last
three months, which does suggest that we are
right around the corner from resolution as
this just has very little way to go as well.
Not only that, but most importantly, perhaps,
is the historical volatility percentile, which
is down, which has been downtrend and ever
since our fourteen thousand are high. And
this is getting this. Of course, if you’re
familiar with volatility, this is designed
to contract and expand. And of course, when
we get down to a level like this, which is
a level that we really only see, you know,
a few times in history, I mean, the last thing
that we saw a level like this was in Mark
or sorry, May before that massive explosion
from the 5000 dollar base, you know, almost
to 2Xing in the next week and a half, two
weeks. You know, we we will see a big move
relatively soon just based off some like this.
So you already began to touch on our next
question, which is that yesterday the United
States Federal Reserve made another decision
to lower interest rates, which will pump more
than fifty three billion dollars into the
U.S. economy. BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, tweeted
today quantitative easing forever is coming
once the Fed gets religion again. Get ready
for hashtag Bitcoin twenty thousand. What
exactly does he mean by quantitative easing
forever? And do you agree with Hayes? Will
Bitcoin be spurred on to twenty thousand dollars
in light of this decision?
The Federal Reserve is basically the world’s
largest player in the financial markets. Whatever
they say or do has a direct impact across
all acts, all assets that stocks commodities
effects.
For the most part, crypto is rather uncorrelated
with the rest of those markets. But it seems
like a lot of crypto analysts are already
saying, including Erik here, is that as we
go, those type of interest rate decisions
will play a bigger role in Bitcoin’s price
action. So far, we haven’t seen any any point
in history where a Federal Reserve announcement
actually really moved the price of Bitcoin.
But as they go further down this cycle where
they’re easing and quantitative easing and
lowering interest rates, it basically what
it does is it makes money more readily available.
And they’re basically pushing lots and lots
more money into the into the economy. That
money is mostly baseless. So what it what
it does is it has the effect of devaluing
the U.S. dollar, devaluing the euro. This
is the currency wars that have been going
on for the last decade or so, where every
single country wants to push down the price
of their currency as much as possible and
devalue their own currency. The idea is that
the less value your currency has, the better
it boosts your economy because more people
will want to buy your stuff. So if you if,
let’s say, the Japanese yen is lower, more
people can buy Japanese goods at a cheaper
rate. So this is the currency wars. Now, Bitcoin
is the main benefactor of the currency wars
because Bitcoin is designed to go up in value
to have a very limited supply. And it doesn’t
they don’t keep pushing more and more baseless
bitcoins, but rather there’s only 21 million
coins that will ever be minted. And in that
case, it basically is a deflationary asset,
whereas all of the other fiat currencies are
extremely inflationary.
Right. So I hear what you’re saying on that.
And first and foremost, this rate cuts already
been priced in. As long as the expectation
is met and that’s a quarter percent cut to
the downside. Now, I would push back on Mati’s
statement, while I do agree with most of what
he said, that Bitcoin’s uncorrelated with
the traditional markets.
I strongly disagree with that. And we can
show this in mathematical way, actually. I’ll
bring up screen share us one more time. So
is a spy. This is the major U.S. U.S. industry.
You know, tracks SPX essentially. And down
in this bottom pane right here. This purple
histogram is actually a correlation coefficient
matched up with spy price action versus bitcoin
price action that you can see right here.
We’re actually pretty we’re we’re actually
relatively possibly correlated. Now, we have
been on a downtrend for the last year or actually
sorry, about half year or so. But you can
see over the history of time, you’ve been
more correlated than not. And more importantly,
we can just do this by eye as well. And I
really push back on these. It’s not, you know.
You know, not to be a cynic or anything like
that, but just because this is not what we
see at all in my opinion, and you can make
the decision for yourself, but I’ll put up
Bitcoin’s price action in a line chart back
here, put it on log scale. You can see just
since the dawn of time for bitcoin, anytime
the traditional market major indices are rallying
any time that they’re mostly bullish on the
macro. We’re looking at a weekly time frame
right here. They’re both rallying together.
Bitcoin typically tops a little bit first
and then traditional market usually bottoms
a little bit first, but they’re moving together
on the macro. So I push back on statements
like that because we are going to see Bitcoin
take a more primary role in kind of playing
these sorts things out as I go back to my
camera. Now, still, the big thing there is
that, you know, as time goes on, that is the
big kind of switch that I think goes on in
people’s head that makes them realize Bitcoin’s
value. As Mati said, when you have governments
essentially printing more money, which devalues
your currency, that you’ve been, you know,
holding a bank and then you start seeing your
bank is now charging you interest. When we
go into negative rates, which is prior, you
know, not too long in the distant future,
as we’ve seen in other first world countries
already do this. You know, Japan being one
of Germany being another, I believe, you know,
people’s brains are gonna start to switch
on, I’d imagine, and start to see Bitcoin.
Oh, this is this is something that actually,
you know, the the supply is limited, whereas
my you know, my fiat currency keeps on going
down. And and that’s when you know, that’s
when it starts to make sense for people to
actually adopt, you know, in a real way, this
this asset, in my opinion.
So you think 20000 is possible?
I think 20000 is possible, yes. It’s really
going to come. I mean, it’s we’re still kind
of an experimental phase. At the end of the
day, it’s still an extremely small market,
but 20000. Very much possible. Yes, absolutely.
So I wanted to just point out, Eric, that
correlation does not necessarily equal causation.
And I get what you’re saying, that Bitcoin
and the stock market have been moving in the
same direction. On a macro level, and I do
believe that the cause for the most part has
been federal easing over the last 10 years.
But what we need to really remember is that
Bitcoin is only about 10 years old. So we’ve
never actually been in a situation where we’ve
seen a bear market in the stocks and what
kind of effect that might have on Bitcoin.
So I think it’s to make those kind of statements
that that there’s kind of a macro correlation.
I think that we’re still a little bit early
this chart actually, as you could say, it’s
a little bit early. But I do believe 10, 10
years is pretty good. We’ve gone through a
few hefty correction in the stock market,
but. No, no. Right.
Well, that we’ve never seen a dip in in in
the Dow Jones of more than 10, 20 percent.
Right. Right. But there’s been corrections.
It moves with it. On the macro, with corrections,
we’re starting to see what happens in a bear
market, obviously. But that right now is you
know, it’s just now really gone through that
point.
But but Bitcoin has never done before is actually
react to a Fed statement.
And if you look at it on the day-to-day, I’m
not sure that’s true. I mean, no correlation
coefficient is negative. Negative point 2,
which is almost nonexistent, meaning that
on a day to day level, if the stock market
goes up or the stock market goes down on wait,
no effect whatsoever on that.
This is disingenuous. On a day to day level.
You’re not talking about trend. You’re talking
about day to day activity, which is going
to be uncorrelated. We need to look at the
macro. We need to look at trends, which is
going to be shown by higher time frames, not
a daily.
Oh, well, you just pointed out the Federal
Reserve is likely to be a catalyst for a Bitcoin
movement.
Yeah. So that’s a day to day markets.
No, but these get priced in right before way
before we know about these meetings, way in
advance. The rate cut has been known about
for like a month, maybe two months in advance.
These things are these things are known kind
of for the most part. And it’s only deviations
from that is the expectation, absolute certainty
only over the last week.
It’s been forecasted about two weeks ago.
So if you’re what you’re saying is correct
that the Fed is going to be a catalyst for
a huge Bitcoin movement, by your own logic.
It should have happened already.
No. What you saw, if you’re going to talk
about happened before already than what you’re
seeing is a race over the last look. Well,
over the last few years really to decrease
interest rates. Right. Well, what have we
seen in the last six, seven months?
Over the last few years, 20, 18 was actually
a rate increase cycle. The Fed has only flip
flopped on their on their policy. Right. Within
the last six months.
Yes. OK. In the last six months. What has
Bitcoin done in the last six months?
I can show you on.
It’s not just where Bitcoin has literally
more than 4 Xed in the last six months as
they as they decline rates each and every
time.
No, no, no. What I’m saying is over the last
six months, they’ve been increasing. They’ve
been increasing in their interest rate. So
here we can see. So since 2016, they’ve been
on a tightening cycle and only very, very
recently.
Last month, they decreased their interest
rate for the first time since the financial
crisis. That’s like within the last month
or two.
Correct. For that, we take the risk. Hold
on. It’s not just the US. The rest the world
has been has been taking down their rates,
but we sell a lot. So let’s not just focus
on the US because the U.S. does not make up
the whole market.
Well, there are the 500 pound gorilla. But
for your sake we’ll continue.
Maybe, maybe not. You know that Japan’s a
major player, China’s major player. It’s a
world market man. We can’t really say that
the US, you know, decides for the world. The
world in general has been lowering interest
rates. And I’m sure that you would agree with
that. Over the last you know, over the last
six months, for sure. You know. Absolutely.
So to me, that is the actual catalyst itself.
Once those expectations come around, that’s
when the catalyst happens. So we’ve already
seen most of this move precipitated from that.
What’s happening now is we’re waiting to see
the next sort of actual actions if they do
match up in any sort of. Like I said, any
sort of deviation from that expectation of
a quarter rate percent cut is going to be
met by, you know, violent swings. If we just
cut about a quarter percent prior, I can see
all that much until the next sort of, you
know, you know, phase I guess begins.
Since we’re talking about price forecasts,
what are your long term predictions about
where Bitcoin’s price will be by the end of,
let’s say, this year?
Oh, my. I look, my answer hasn’t changed.
I try to shy away from price predictions.
I don’t know the future. Anything can happen.
So between 100 dollars and a million.
Nice. I like it. I like it. Okay, so week
I can go back in this screenshot for a second
here. I’ll give. Kind of like a bearish prediction.
And in a bullish prediction, this is expect
a move with regards to historical volatility.
I’m a huge believer in volatility. And in
this case, we can kind of come up with ranges.
So the way that the way to look at this right
now is we are squeezing it so damn hard. That
huge move is is around the corner. I’d still
stick with what I’ve said in about a week
to a week and a half. And then the way that
we can kind of goose us around and actually
get the probabilities for the end of year
is I’ll go in right here and we can do. How
many days until the end of the year? Maybe
what we have got another 4 months or three
months or something like that. So it’s gonna
be around like maybe a hundred twenty days
perhaps. And then we come up with these ranges.
They’re not gonna be all that helpful. But
if we were to come up with like the most what,
you know, the most likely range by end of
year, you know, to the upside, we’re probably
looking somewhere right around like 12000,
13000 to that down.
So we probably looking somewhere around 8000.
You know, it’s closing around end of year.
I don’t really have a strong opinion other
than that, you know, I’d still be waiting
for resolution on, you know, on this hopeful
formation right here. It’s same thing that
we spoke about earlier. I know it’s not like
too sexy to talk about, but unfortunately,
that’s as far as like being a legitimate trader.
It’s really all you can do. You know, an analyst
can tell you exactly what’s going to happen,
but they don’t have any sort of legitimate.
What’s it called skin in the game. So I would
kind of back off as well as Mati and say,
hey, man, if we break to the upside of that
formation, I’ll be looking for a closing price.
End of year, probably around 13000 if we break
to the downside. I’ll be looking somewhere
around, maybe a thousand of you.
Much, much more narrow range than mine.
Fair enough, so alt coins are looking very
bullish at the moment. While Bitcoin seems
to have stagnated in the mid low ten thousands.
Google Trends show that the term bitcoin is
less popular now than at any time since April
2019. Is apathy toward bitcoin spurring on
interest in alt coins?
Generally speaking, bitcoin is not moving
very much and you do see a lot of progression,
especially in a lot of these alt coin networks.
So yeah.
Yeah. You know, I think I think that most
all to have some upside here, we’ve been saying
this for the last week and a half, two weeks
now. I think that they have some more upside.
You know, as far as like the reason for it
is they’re like apathy towards Bitcoin. I
don’t know about that. And, you know, I think
we’re just kind of going through the cycles
really well. It seems to me from what I’ve
looked at in this whole cryptos, fears that
alt coins do best when Bitcoin is mostly sideways
and bitcoin is as about as sideways as you
can get right now. So. So that’s going to
benefit our side. The alt coins the most,
my opinion as far as like people’s general
attitude towards them. I mean, it’s hard to
call something bullish after a little. We’ve
still been down about 80 to 90 percent off
their highs. But I do think that they have
some upside here. I do think that they get
some continuation looking at Ethereum in like
one right now. They both look like they both
look like they once more to me. Other naturally
have too much. I’ll say I don’t really spend
too much time actually looking at alt coins,
actually.
So I know, Eric, you don’t deal as much with
alt coins. But Mati, do you have any predictions
about where Ethereum or Ripples XRP price
might be at the end of the year as well?
My same predictions, my friend. I don’t make
them. I just look it when when you’re trading.
And a lot of people like to focus on predictions
and price targets that that’s not really my
style. My style is allocation. Tell me how
much percentage of your portfolio is in each
specific alt coin that’s going to give you
a much better, much more robust, robust way
to trade. So for me, it’s all about diversification.
And when you see a sign a kind of an opportunity,
I don’t know where where Ripples going to
or xRP is going to end up by the end of the
year. And I really don’t care. I see some
movement. I feel that there is momentum. I’ll
allocate another half a percent or 1 percent
of my portfolio. That’s really all there is
to it. When one, the momentum stops, whenever
that may be. I’ll take some of the profits
off the table.
How do you feel about that, Eric? Do you agree
with what Mati just said in his view on alt
coins?
Yeah, absolutely. I think, Marty, actually,
I completely nailed something that I think
is so beautiful. And that is people want predictions.
People want all that good stuff. But as far
as trading goes, you don’t really need predictions
to make money. That’s not what trading really
is. You know, I know it’s sexy and it gets
the views and everything like that.
I guess ff I had to call an end, you know,
an end of year price for what? What did you
want? Like Ripple and Ethereum. Ethereum,
a prob probably hanging around like that.
You earn a dollar mark ripple probably around
like the 30 cent mark. You know, if I had
to guess again, it’s going to really to me
it matters most what bitcoin does first. Bitcoin
sets the pace and then the alt coins fall.
Bitcoin breaks down here. Then the alt coin
market price goes up and probably goes back
down to the gutter at bitcoin breaks up here.
Then they get hurt versus satoshis, but they’ll
likely benefit versus U.S. dollar. And that’s
kind of where I’d see it, maybe end of year,
some like that.
So even though Bitcoin is trading sideways
right now and alt coins seem to be getting
bullish or being more volatile, and you still
think that alt coins will be following Bitcoin’s
lead once bitcoin starts moving again?
For now, yeah, we still are in a pretty immature
market. It’s still extremely low markup. We’re
dealing with literally less than a quarter
trillion, which is nothing for the whole crypto
space and mostly things they’re just gonna
they’re likely to follow bitcoin.
If you look at the whole on the you know,
on the whole most things. You know, if you
just had to take a gander at it are gonna
be doing whatever Bitcoin does in a slightly
more emotional way.
You know, on the macro, I would disagree with
you there. Look at as it sits, either XRP
and several others are up double digits, 20
percent over the last week. Whereas Bitcoin
has been largely flat. And I think that is
that dynamic even continues for another day.
You’re gonna have people selling Bitcoin to
try and catch those moves and the alt coins
and tellme.
Do you know about. Hold on. Why not? Let’s
just think this one through for a second here.
How much did Bitcoin double or how much did
Bitcoin go up from its December lows?
You know, off the top of my head, one hundred
and fifty percent, no too much more than they
had for for about a 4 X, about a 4 X little
bit more than a 4 X went from about thirty
one hundred to almost fourteen thousand.
How much has Ripple gone up in that time?
Well, we can put it on the chart real quick.
And it’s not it’s not difficult, right?
It’s not going to be anywhere near that for.
OK. So it’s what I’m getting now.
We’re looking at two hundred ish percent.
Two hundred and twenty percent for like going
about the same Binance Coin is up three hundred
and eighty four percent, whereas XRP is only
up eleven percent.
So look, if people all of a sudden say, hey,
I don’t know, XRP has been underperforming
and it’s do a come up-ins, I would not it
would not be far fetched for just people to
sell a little bit of their bitcoin and push
that into X R.P. or for the other or for four
or the other way. People could say, hey, look
Litecoin zooming again. It’s been performing
fantastically this year. Let me get some more
of that or reallocate that in my portfolio.
And that’s what I’ve done a little bit this
morning. Bitcoin is no longer the top top
crypto in my portfolio as of today. And if
that situation continues, I’ll get even more
aggressive on the old coins.
Yeah. Fair enough. I I I’m not necessarily
sure where you’re getting those numbers from
them from though Bitcoin’s up 300 percent,
Bitcoins up three and a 50 percent from where
it bottomed out to where it is right now.
Litecoin is up 250 percent and ripples up
30 percent from its from its December lows.
So I argue with you. Right. Right. So my point
is, is that on the macro, you know, Bitcoin
is still the major gainer, still kind of sets
the pace. And then the alt coins, you know,
they they just come out like a later date.
From what I see right now, can that change
in the future? Absolutely. But like I said,
we’re still pretty pretty small market here.
In general, I would agree with you. All I’m
saying is that if this situation continues
like it has over the last week, if it continues
another day or two, then you could probably
expect some money to come out of bitcoin in
order to fund some of those alt coin possession.
Oh, yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
Absolutely. And in that case, you would get
a divergence rather than rather than something
going in the same direction. But past performance
is not an indication of future results. Right.
Thank you, everyone, for watching. That was
Mati Greenspan and Eric Crown joining me on
this week’s market predictions.
My name is Jackson and always remember to
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